Ethnic populations are generally defined in opposition to non-Hispanic whites—long the dominant ethnic group in the U.S. However, non-Hispanic whites dropped below 70% of the population in the 2000 Census and their share will decline rapidly over the coming decades. Sometime shortly after 2040, non-Hispanic whites will fall below the majority (50%) line. The table below traces the growth in ethnic population shares based on the Census Bureau projections.
In contrast to much of U.S. history, immigrants no longer come from Europe, but mostly from Latin America and Asia. Both the Pew and the Census Bureau projections assume this will continue, and given the rapidly aging populations of most of Europe, this seems a safe assumption. The combination of little or no non-Hispanic white immigration, the lowest fertility rates of any group, and a substantially older population, means that non-Hispanic whites will, by and large, not grow in absolute numbers for the projectable future and will shrink as a share of total U.S. population. In the Census Bureau projections, the absolute numbers of non-Hispanic whites actually fall after 2030 as seen in the chart below.
Hispanics and Asians are projected to grow strongly in the U.S... |
Generational trends matter
Both Hispanics and Asians are projected to grow strongly in the U.S. from ongoing immigration and fertility rates that are higher than the native population. Hispanics alone will account for 60% of total population growth in the U.S. between 2005 and 2050, with about three quarters of that coming from new immigrants and their children and one quarter coming from children of Hispanics already in the country by 2005.
Generational trends will make for big changes in the composition of the Hispanic population in the U.S. As the chart below shows, the majority of U.S. Hispanics in 1960 were third generation or higher residents (both parents born in the U.S., perhaps even all grandparents). Only about 14% were first generation (i.e., foreign born). By 2005, Latino immigration had turned the tables and 40% were foreign born. Over the coming decades, second (U.S. born with at least one immigrant parent) and third generation Hispanics will grow at the expense of the foreign born.
Reaching the Asian community
Asians will grow almost as fast as Hispanics on a percentage basis, almost tripling by 2050. Growth for Asians will be even more dependent on new immigrants than growth for Hispanics will be, with new arrivals after 2005 and their children accounting for 94% of overall growth in the U.S. Asian population. A lower fertility rate among Asians is the main reason that Asians in the U.S. before 2005 do not account for a larger share of growth.
Asians will be more closely tied to their native cultures than will be Hispanics... |
Although Asians will be substantially smaller in numbers and share (9% of total in 2050 in the Pew projections) than Hispanics, they will be more closely tied to their native cultures than will be Hispanics, most of whom will have been born in the U.S. and will have native English language skills. For marketers, Asian growth is much more of a challenge than Hispanic growth simply because the mix of cultures and languages is much wider.
Finding common ground between Indian and Chinese immigrants is substantially more difficult (if not downright impossible) than finding it between immigrants from Mexico and the rest of Latin America. With tight resources, it will not be possible for most manufacturers to design programs specifically for individual groups within the Asian population, but at nearly 10% of total population in 2050, those who manage to effectively reach Asians could generate substantial growth.
Children of the future
The number of children will grow less rapidly than the total population, increasing by 39% by 2050 (versus 48% for total population). Although Hispanic and Asian immigrant populations are adding children to the population, the aging non-Hispanic white population is adding very few. All of the projected growth in children will come from new immigrants and their children. Without the children of immigrants (who will have arrived in the U.S. after 2005), the number of children would decrease in absolute numbers over the projection period by about eight million.
Children become more ethnic more quickly than the total population... |
More ethnic, more quickly
The net result of the aging non-Hispanic white population, combined with the growth in children coming from new immigrants and their children, is that children become more ethnic more quickly than the total population. As seen below, the share of children who were non-Hispanic white in 1960 will be cut in half by 2050. By 2050, 60% of all children in the U.S. will be Hispanic (35%), black (14%) or Asian (10%). Assuming that Hispanics remain at least somewhat geographically concentrated in the U.S., by 2050, Hispanic children will outnumber non-Hispanic children by a reasonable ratio in many markets in the U.S.
Although there are some differences between the projections done by the Census Bureau and by Pew, there is far more agreement. Unless there is wholesale modification in immigration laws (see sidebar, How Accurate are the Projections), Hispanics and Asians will become more and more important to the overall population of the U.S. over the coming decades. They, and other immigrant groups from sub-Saharan Africa or the Middle East, will account for the vast majority of all population growth that the U.S. will see.
The future U.S. will be a tale of two marketplaces... |
A tale of two markets
The future U.S. will be a tale of two marketplaces, one driven by the aging remnants of the Baby Boom, and the other by a wide mix of Latin American and other cultures and languages. The Baby Boom will likely be the most affluent and most active group of seniors the U.S. has ever seen both from a cultural and a political point of view, and certainly the most demanding from a consumer point of view. The growing population though, will be increasingly ethnic—dominantly Hispanic—with an urban-based culture and a very different set of political priorities. They will also dominate the long-held key target market for consumer packaged goods—families with children.
Marketers will need to treat multi-cultural marketing as the norm and not as a side effort. Hispanics will require unique approaches grounded in their own culture and language. The battle at the shelf will be fiercer than ever before, and brands with a true global reach—brands that immigrants will be familiar with before ever stepping foot into a U.S. supermarket—will have a tidy advantage.
Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/)
PewResearchCenter (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/729/united-states-population-projections)
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